The new migrants
In 2020, over 50 million people were hit by climate-related disasters. Migrations caused by a changing climate are already happening and will increase rapidly if no climate action is taken.
Migration is a complex phenomenon involving not only climate change but also socio-economical factors, such as human conflicts.
Some people migrate voluntarily majorly driven by the search of better economic opportunities, but many other are involuntary migrants, being forced to leave their home as they are in danger due to war or a natural disaster.
New displacements in 2020
Between 2010 and 2019, weather-related events caused the dispacement of 23.1 million people on average each year.
In 2020 the International Displacement Monitoring Centre detected 30 million new displacements caused by extreme weather.
Source: GRID 2021 Internal Displacement in a changing climate by IDMC
These migrants are now unofficially called “environmental migrants”. Climate projections indicate that if no climate action is taken the number of migrants will increase significantly due to extreme weather-related events.
Source: GRID 2021 Internal Displacement in a changing climate by IDMC
Now we will focus on heat stress, causing millions of displacements. Increasing heat stress will result on an increasing frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards, especially drought and storms.
Source: GRID 2021 Internal Displacement in a changing climate by IDMC
Currently, it is estimated that 1% of the planet is a barely habitable hot zone. By 2070, this figure could reach 19% and we could be facing a scenario of massive migratory movements around the world.
The data you will see on the map is the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a thermal comfort indicator based on human heat balance models, a way to measure heat stress by humans.
UTCI combines temperature, radiation, wind and humidity data.
Let’s see now how it will evolve worldwide from now until 2100.
2020
2050
2070
2100
Extreme temperatures, heatwaves and related extreme events have a strong impact on agriculture production, and consequently an effect on food security and poverty.
Huge migration fluxes from rural communities of Africa, Asia and South America have already started in response to food insecurity.
Let’s discover now a few key examples.
Subsaharan Africa
Food security conditions in drought-hit areas are alarming. In 2020, 4.3 million new people were displaced in Sub-Saharan Africa due to extreme events.
Source: GRID 2021 Internal Displacement in a changing climate by IDMC
Somalia
By September 2020, the number of Somalis facing acute malnutrition tripled to 3.5 million compared to early 2020.
Ethiopia
During 2020, 200,000 hectares of cropland were damaged, and over 356,000 tons of cereals were lost, leaving almost one million people suffering from food insecurity.
Madagascar / Senegal / Tanzania
In March 2021, reduced agricultural output caused by adverse weather events and Covid-19 restrictions led Madagascar, Senegal and Tanzania to request urgent humanitarian assistance.
Asia
In 2020, a total of 17.8 million people were displaced in China, Philippines, Bangladesh and India due to weather-related disasters.
Source: GRID 2021 Internal Displacement in a changing climate by IDMC
East Asia experienced during the last decade extremely hot summers with UTCI peaks up to 44.9°C during July. UTCI values for 2090 are expected to reach peaks of 51.7°C, far exceeding the threshold limit of 39°C that can be sustained by a human body.
Bangladesh
It has been estimated that by 2050, one in every seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change. Every day, between 1,000 and 2,000 people move to Dhaka, the Bangladeshi capital. Most of those arriving in Dhaka end up in the urban slums around the periphery.
Source: Environmental Climate Foundation
The Phillippines
In the Philippines, heat increase has a stronger impact on migrations than typhoons due to its damaging effect on crop yields. Each 1°C increase in the summer temperature results in a decrease of 6% in the annual rice yield, compared to an equivalent of 0.05% caused by typhoons.
Source: Bohra-Mishra et al. 2017
South America
In 2020, intense drought affected many countries in South America with Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil being the most impacted. Central America has also experienced the consequences of historic droughts.
Brazil
Droughts and reduced rainfall caused agricultural losses of almost 3 billion dollars and major heatwaves reached peaks of 44.6°C, more than the human body can bear without consequences.
Central america: The Dry Corridor
In 2019, 8% of families in the Dry Corridor, many of which were small-scale farmers, planned to migrate in response to the difficult conditions.
Central america: The Dry Corridor
Drought and crop failure in the Central American Dry Corridor have been an important factor in the formation of the migrant caravans heading towards the US.
As the planet heats up, some parts of the world are becoming uninhabitable. People are forced to move not because they want to, but driven by their need to survive. The countries most responsible for the climate emergency are fortifying their borders to keep them out.
Wouldn’t it be a better and fairer solution to invest in helping people living in areas most affected by the climate emergency, caused mainly by rich countries, instead of building ever-higher walls?
Taking climate action and local preventive and adaptative actions can reduce the number of environmental migrants.